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Commentary
Donald Trump and Joe Biden last debated on Oct. 22, 2020 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images)
Americans have become accustomed to picking the lesser of two evils when we vote. Political participation these days is as much about keeping the other side out of power as it is about getting our picks into office.
Still, many were holding out hope that this year’s contest for Leader of the Free World might offer something more uplifting than a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Most Americans did not think Biden should run for reelection.
Most Americans did not think Trump should try to regain his old job.
And most Americans yearned for a viable third choice.
But from the beginning, all indications were that, if the two men refused to step aside, the party nominations were theirs for the taking — and as we head into the multistate nomination battle known as Super Tuesday, both are poised to seal the deal.
As incumbent, Biden faced no serious competition. A few Democrats with national stature took the early steps needed to seek his job — including governors in California, Michigan, and Kentucky — but they were understudies waiting in the wings in case their star exited the stage. None tried out for the leading role, and the president predictably upstaged the extras who’d stuck around until after the curtain rose.
Trump is out of power and — after underperforming in three straight federal elections – Republican leaders had grown tired of all the losing. So the former president did have to fend off a minor mutiny.
But grassroots Republicans didn’t join the uprising, instead helping Trump dispatch his rivals with ease (perhaps including, indirectly, the one prominent GOP powerbroker openly in conflict with Trump, Mitch McConnell). Trump crushed the last serious dissident, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, on her home turf, and while she’s limping along, he’s likely to deliver the coup d’etat next week.
Nor does a compelling third option seem likely to arise.
Moving the electorate will be tough because voters have been inoculated against negative campaigning. They’ve been saturated with criticism of both men for years and already hold low opinions of them. Biden’s approval numbers are rock bottom, and Trump’s negatives are off the charts.
The No Labels organization teased voters with hopes for a draft pick to be named later, allowing commentators to divert themselves by cycling through a parade of political mavericks who might fit the bill. But the position hasn’t been staffed. Instead, the main third-party option available to voters also is a repeat: the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
Even this year’s one big novelty — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — relies on the familiarity of his last name. The expensive Super Bowl commercial supporting him was a literal rerun from uncle JFK’s 1960 presidential bid, with the nephew substituted in. Kennedy is polling relatively well, but even if that support doesn’t erode (as generally happens with independents), his candidacy hasn’t tipped the scales.
Absent some kind of unexpected shock, we’re stuck with what few Americans wanted: a Biden-Trump rematch. November’s menu will be dominated by leftovers, supplemented by a few side dishes unlikely to feed the masses.
Why didn’t “majority rule” win out on this question? Mainly because no single majority existed. The people calling for Biden to step aside did not overlap much with those decrying another Trump run.
Most partisans were content with their own banner carrier, preferring to stick with the devil they knew.? They just hoped the other side would forfeit.
But while it might be obvious to partisans that their guy is the lesser evil, they’re going to have a harder time convincing everybody else. The Biden-Trump matchup might have been inevitable, but the outcome is not: The two essentially are tied in current polling.
Experts will be quick to reject early polling numbers, pointing out that they’re not usually reliable forecasts of what happens in November. But they’re being too dismissive, because it’s not usual to have two presidents duking it out.
Moving the electorate will be tough because voters have been inoculated against negative campaigning. They’ve been saturated with criticism of both men for years and already hold low opinions of them. Biden’s approval numbers are rock bottom, and Trump’s negatives are off the charts.
At the same time, both presided over the country for years, and it’s still here, battered but not broken. So when campaigners trot out the usual end-of-the-world rhetoric for what will happen if the other side’s villain occupies the Oval Office next January, voters are likely to shrug it off.
To win, party activists must accept that however obvious the rightness of their cause might seem to them, swing voters do not view the rematch the same way.
This will be harder for Democrats, because of the revulsion toward Trump that’s been cultivated in progressive circles (what conservatives call Trump Derangement Syndrome). Progressive commentators are struggling with the reality that most Americans aren’t automatically on board — a state of denial that goes beyond trying to dismiss pre-election polls.
Leaving aside Biden’s struggles within his own coalition, two big issues are hurting him: inflation, and the perception he’s too elderly to continue. With both concerns, the initial activist impulse has been to shoot the messenger.
Why are voters concerned about Biden’s age? Because “the media” keep harping on it. As though voters aren’t seeing and hearing the president regularly.
Why are voters angry about the economy? Because “the media” won’t publicize claims that wages are rising faster than prices. As though Americans aren’t managing their own finances.
This sort of elitism is what put Trump in the White House the first time.
The good news for Democrats is that Biden has pivoted toward the inflation issue, trying to limit the damage.
Groceries aren’t part of the price comparisons economists use to figure out how families are doing, but regardless of whether we’re running up credit-card debt or switching to cereal for dinner, it’s grocery-aisle prices hitting our pocketbooks every day. So to coincide with the Super Bowl, Biden released a video complaining about how snacks have suffered from “shrinkflation” — the hidden increase in prices caused by product sizes diminishing.
But blaming “corporate greed” can only go so far. When voters think the economy’s misbehaving, as they believe now, the president and his party suffers. The Biden White House needs to keep tacking into those headwinds.
The sooner party activists accept that they’re flogging a product that makes most Americans unhappy — that the real shrinkage bothering voters is in the stature and competence of their political leadership — the more likely they’ll be to win the dreaded rematch.
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D. Stephen Voss
D. Stephen Voss is an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, where he has worked since 1998. He earned his Ph.D. at Harvard University, specializing in quantitative analysis, and began his research career studying Southern and Kentucky politics. More broadly, his research focuses on the politics of race, ethnicity and culture.
D. Stephen Voss